Crypto News XRP: ETF Approval Probability Soars 95%, October May Mark a Milestone for the Crypto Market

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas on June 24 XRP The probability of spot ETF being approved in 2025 has been significantly raised from 85% to 95%.

This adjustment follows the positive feedback from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding the filing documents, conveying a strong signal of regulatory optimism. Also included in the probability increase are Solana and Litecoin, both are expected to have a pass rate of 90% to 95%.

Institutional Consensus: Regulatory and Technical Support Behind the 95% High Probability

The market’s expectations for the approval of the XRP ETF are not unfounded. Data from the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket shows that traders are betting on a 90% probability of the XRP ETF being approved within the year, with the trading volume of related contracts exceeding $95,000, indicating strong market confidence.

The core of the SEC’s shift in attitude lies in the redefinition of XRP’s asset characteristics. The regulatory agency has recently leaned towards classifying it as a “commodity” rather than a “security,” a key qualitative change that significantly lowers compliance barriers.

The existing futures products of XRP that are regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) further pave the way for the approval of ETFs.
The Canadian market has already validated this trend. In early 2025, asset management company 3iQ launched a “zero management fee” XRP ETF on the Toronto Stock Exchange, providing a successful precedent for the U.S.

Politics and Technology: The Dual Engine of White House Support and the Ripple Ecosystem

Political power is becoming an accelerator for XRP. On March 2, 2025, U.S. President Trump announced through Truth Social the inclusion of XRP in the U.S. crypto strategic reserves, driving its price to surge by 30% in a single day, reaching $2.60.

The Trump administration publicly praised encryption as a “job creator” and a way to “ease pressure on the dollar,” with its team profiting over $620 million from crypto projects, clearly indicating a bias in policy.

Ripple Company is simultaneously advancing key layouts:

• Bank license application: Submitted a national bank charter application to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) in early July 2025, seeking compliance operations under a federal regulatory framework;
• Technical upgrades: The XRPL EVM sidechain mainnet went live on June 30, achieving cross-chain interoperability with over 80 blockchains, significantly expanding ecological application scenarios;
• Stablecoin layout: Partnered with OpenPayd to promote the RLUSD stablecoin, strengthening the fiat currency channel.

Market Reaction: Institutional Entry Signals Amidst Volatility

First Half of 2025 XRP price High volatility presented:

• In January, stimulated by Trump’s election as president, it surged to $3.20;
• From April to June, it fell back to $1.79 due to geopolitical conflicts;
• Stabilized at $2.19 on July 3.

This volatility has not hindered institutional momentum. The first leveraged fund for XRP (XRPP) in the United States attracted $50 million in inflows during its first week of launch in March, demonstrating the urgent demand from mature investors for compliant exposure.

Final Challenge: The Game of Timelines and Regulatory Procedures

Despite the prevailing optimism, there are still uncertainties in the SEC’s approval process:

• Final decision date locked on October 17: The ETF applications submitted in January 2025 must be adjudicated by this date;
• Delay risks: The SEC has initiated an additional 35-day public comment period for the XRP and Solana ETFs;
• Competitive pressure: Solana’s staking ETF has been approved in advance, offering a 20% annualized return, pushing for innovation in XRP products.

Ripple’s application for a banking license is strategically significant, but the process is complex and the outcome is uncertain. The SEC’s back-and-forth on the Grayscale fund conversion approval (first approving and then suspending the decision within a day) also serves as a reminder to the market: the uncertainty in regulatory enforcement still needs to be heeded.

Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart emphasized in a subsequent statement: “The current question is no longer ‘whether it will be approved’, but ‘when it will be approved’.” If the SEC gives the green light before October 17, XRP will become the fourth crypto asset, after Bitcoin, Ethereum, and SOL, to enter the mainstream financial system, opening the floodgates for the altcoin ETF wave.

The boundary between the crypto world and Wall Street is about to completely collapse at this moment.