Daily News | Binance May Pay Fines Exceeding $4 Billion, Bitcoin Spot ETF Market Size May Reach 100 Billion US Dollars, Blur's Q2 Airdrop Is Open for Collection

Crypto Daily Digest: Binance may pay a fine exceeding $4 billion, Blur’s Q2 airdrop is open for collection

According to Bloomberg, the US Department of Justice is seeking over $4 billion in fines from Binance Holdings Limited to end years of investigation into the exchange and allow it to continue operating.

According to insiders, negotiations between the US Department of Justice and Binance include the possibility that its founder, CZ, may face criminal charges in the United States to resolve investigations into suspected money laundering, bank fraud, and sanctions violations.

The announcement may be released before the end of the month, but the situation is still uncertain. The specific time and structure of the proposed settlement plan, as well as the specific penalties, are not yet clear, but Coin An may need to pay fines exceeding $4 billion, which will be one of the largest fines in the crypto criminal case history. The investigation is led by the Money Laundering and Asset Recovery Team of the Criminal Department, the National Security Department, and the United States Attorney’s Office in Seattle.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence, with the participation of well-known heavyweight companies such as Black Rock, Fidelity, and Invesco, the Bitcoin spot ETF market will likely develop into a huge market worth $100 billion.

According to another person familiar with the matter, earlier this month, Galaxy Digital collaborated with Invesco and held a conference call with about 300 investment professionals to discuss the allocation of Bitcoin as the debut of Bitcoin spot ETFs approached.

The Canadian Financial Institutions Supervision Authority (OSFI) has requested feedback from banks on the upcoming crypto risk reporting rules. OSFI stated in a statement that digital innovation is changing the way transactions, funds are managed, and value is viewed, but it also poses risks to the financial . The recent crypto events have highlighted the risks of unregulated financial innovation. Public disclosure enhances transparency, data comparability, and market discipline, which is conducive to establishing a safer financial . The deadline for feedback is January 31st. It is reported that the draft guidelines are planned to be released in the autumn of 2024, and the final rules will be announced the following year.

Santander Private Banking International, a subsidiary of Spanish financial services giant Banco Santander, provides trading and investment services for high-net-worth clients in Switzerland, primarily in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

In the coming months, Santander Bank will provide more cryptocurrencies that meet the bank’s screening criteria. Santander Bank stated that the service is only provided through a customer relationship manager upon request, with assets held in a regulated custody mode, and the bank storing private keys in a secure environment.

In terms of token airdrops, on November 21st, the NFT market Blur announced on social media that its Season 2 has ended, and traders are eligible to start receiving Season 2 airdrops and have 45 days to apply for BLUR. With the end of this season, the third season has already begun, which will last for 6 months, providing new rewards for NFT traders and BLUR holders. 50% of the third season rewards will be awarded to NFT traders through Blur points, Traders can earn points through NFT bidding, listing, and borrowing.

In terms of data, according to blockchain analysis company Glassnode, the indicator of net position change in Bitcoin transactions, which measures the number of tokens held by trading wallets on a specific date compared to the same date four weeks ago, rose to 31,382.43 BTCs ($1.16 billion) on Sunday, the highest level since May 11th. This brings the total balance held by the exchange to 2.35 million BTCs.

The inflow into the exchange wallet is widely believed to represent investors’ intention to liquidate their holdings of assets, potential selling pressure, or the deployment of tokens as margin in the futures and options markets.

Today’s Main Token Trends

BTC

The daily chart is testing the resistance at $37,980 for the third time, but caution is needed as there is a potential divergence in the short term, indicating a possible reversal. Conservative bulls are advised to wait for a breakthrough above $38,000 and continue to target $40,500 and $42,015. The bearish target is $34,870.

ETH

The four-hour chart has successfully broken the major downtrend, and the support at $1,857 remains intact. In the short term, there may be continued consolidation, with a mid-term expectation of sufficient volume to break the $2,135 resistance. Once broken, a new high in 18 months is anticipated, with a target of $2,381.

RIO

With a sixfold increase in the last two months, the daily chart structure has risen from a low of $0.1045 to a target of $0.6060. In the short term, the upward movement seems satisfied, and a retracement is suggested to hold steady at $0.4650. Long-term targets include $1.22, $5.22, and the top target of $8.88.

Macro: With high inflationary pressure and lagging economic recession risks, it is too early to immediately lower interest rates

Let’s take a look at the main global market trends first. On Monday, the US dollar index continued its downward trend, dropping to a new low of 103.37 in the past two months, and finally closing down 0.31% at 103.49. US bond yields fell first and then rose. The 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.426%; The two-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy interest rates, stood at 4.9% and ultimately closed at 4.919%.

Spot gold fell first and then rose, reaching an intraday low of $1965.54 during the European session. It later regained most of its lost ground, but did not return above the 1980 level, ultimately closing 0.14% lower at $1978.05 per ounce; Spot silver fell by more than 1% on the day and briefly reached an intraday low of $23.24, ultimately closing down 1.21% at $23.44 per ounce.

Due to the possibility of OPEC reducing production this week, the two oil companies continue to rebound. WTI crude oil prices rose by over 2% at one point and returned to around $78, but later took back some of the gains and ended up 1.99% higher at $77.56 per barrel; Brent crude oil briefly approached $83 and eventually rose 1.76% to $81.97 per barrel.

The US stock market rose due to a better-than-expected 20-year US bond auction, and the three major US stock indices collectively closed higher. The Dow rose 0.58%, the S&P 500 index rose 0.74%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.13%. Microsoft (MSFT.O) and INVIDIA (NVDA.O) reached historic closing highs, rising 2% and 2.2% respectively.

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Barr stated that the Federal Reserve may have approached or reached peak interest rates; San Francisco Fed Chairman Daley believes that high-risk and “ambiguous” economic conditions mean that the Fed should implement gradualism; Boston Fed Chairman Collins stated that the current data is very chaotic and the Federal Reserve is prepared to patiently wait. The possibility of further interest rate hikes will not be ruled out; Richmond Fed Chairman Barkin believes that inflation remains stubbornly high, which is a reason to maintain high-interest rates for a longer period of time.

In short, the FOMC may have ended raising interest rates, but officials still do not have confidence in this judgment.

Economists believe that the economic recession may have already begun, but inflation is still far from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, far enough to prevent them from significantly lowering interest rates. Even more complex is that at economic turning points, economic activity data often has an upward trend, which means that the Federal Reserve may not know until later that the economy is indeed declining. This perpetuates the risk of further interest rate hikes or maintaining higher interest rates for a longer period of time.

However, the market has ruled out the risk of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The analysis of natural language processing models in foreign media shows that the committee’s recent statement still indicates a hawkish bias, although it is shifting towards neutrality. This mainly reflects the members’ pursuit of conveying caution and expressing a “higher and longer” stance to the market. Officials have yet to have confidence that inflation will not rebound and there is no need for additional interest rate hikes. The FOMC has already raised interest rates but is working hard to convey the message that there will be no immediate rate cut.

With the expectation of interest rate hikes reaching their peak, we have seen the US dollar weaken and other countries’ currencies begin to strengthen. These signs indicate that interest rate hikes have become a thing of the past, and next year will usher in a larger scale of easing policies. After interest rate cuts, there will be another carnival.