Trump hinted at seeking a third term, causing controversy, and the prediction market Polymarket bets that Vance will be a frontrunner for the 2028 election.

On August 5, U.S. President Donald Trump hinted during an interview with CNBC's "Squawk Box" that despite the 22nd Amendment of the U.S. Constitution explicitly prohibiting a president from being elected more than twice, he still "wants to" and may seek a third term. Trump claimed to have the "highest approval rating in history" and mentioned the existence of actionable "methods." The decentralized prediction market Polymarket shows that 55% of participants are betting that current Vice President JD Vance will become the 48th President of the United States in 2028, while only 4% believe Trump can successfully be re-elected for a third term. Trump is currently facing public scrutiny due to his potential connections with sex offender Epstein and the similarly named meme coin $TRUMP project.

Trump states: intends to challenge constitutional term limits

• Controversial Statement: In a recent television interview, Trump told CNBC, "I want to run (for a third term)... My current polling support is the highest it has ever been." This statement directly challenges the 22nd Amendment of the U.S. Constitution (ratified in 1951), which strictly limits any individual to being elected to the presidency no more than twice.
• Early Preparation: In an interview with NBC in March this year, Trump hinted at the possibility of seeking to run again in 2028, stating that there are feasible "methods" and expressing that "we are very popular, and many people want me to do this."
• Constitutional Conflict: If Trump officially seeks re-election at the end of his second term, it would constitute a direct violation of the U.S. Constitution. This statement quickly sparked questions from legal experts and political opponents regarding his respect for constitutional order.

Polka Prediction Market: Vance Cheng the Biggest Favorite for 2028

• Decentralization Prediction Ahead: The decentralized prediction platform Polymarket has set odds for the 2028 presidential election.
• Vance's advantage is significant: Current prediction market data shows that 55% of participants are betting on the current Vice President JD Vance to become the next (48th) President of the United States.
• Trump's low winning rate: Only 4% of participants believe that Trump can successfully obtain a third term.
• Other potential competitors: Other potential candidates favored by the Polka market include U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, media personality Tucker Carlson, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

Trump faces multiple public scrutiny

• Crypto-Friendly Policy Tag: Trump's current campaign focuses on "crypto-friendly" regulatory policies, successfully attracting support from parts of the cryptocurrency community.
• Epstein Connection Controversy: However, recent potential associations with the deceased sex offender Jeffrey Epstein have again come under close public scrutiny, posing a challenge to his public image.
• Blockchain project criticized: Its projects in the blockchain field, especially the meme coin named after him $TRUMP, have also faced criticism from political opponents, questioning whether he is profiting from his presidential identity.

Conclusion: The statement about a third term may serve as a bargaining chip, and Vance has become the focus of the Republican Party succession. Trump's remarks about a third term have sparked discussions about a constitutional crisis, but they are more likely aimed at shaping his image of "sustained strength" and adding leverage for future political maneuvering. The high betting rates in the Polka prediction market indicate that the crypto community is more inclined to believe that the Republican Party will be led by a new generation leader, Vance, in 2028. As Trump's personally selected running mate, Vance continues the "Trumpism" policy line while gaining attention with his relatively young image and clear stance on crypto regulation. Although Trump remains the core of the Republican Party in the short term, the judicial investigations, historical controversies, and constitutional constraints he faces are prompting the market to focus on the "post-Trump era" represented by Vance. The dynamics of the 2028 presidential race, especially regarding crypto policy, will thus be influenced by these remarks and market predictions, adding new variables.