SEC's new regulations signal altcoin ETF: derivation linkage becomes key, leading CEX roles in the US are highlighted, Meme coins face obstacles.

The US SEC has introduced a new regulatory framework for crypto ETFs, making the performance of the derivatives market a core approval standard. Tokens that have been listed on mainstream CEX derivatives platforms or CME futures for more than six months are expected to be approved for spot ETFs. Analysts point out that this rule opens the door for more than a dozen altcoins such as SOL and ADA, but meme coins lacking futures (like BONK) will face higher compliance hurdles. The new regulations also establish a key position for the CEX derivatives market and continue the mechanism for physical redemption. The first batch of non-BTC/ETH crypto ETFs is expected to be launched as early as this fall, marking an important step towards the integration of crypto assets into mainstream finance.

1. Core of New Regulations: Futures Performance Determines Life and Death, More than a Dozen Alts Benefit

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is moving towards broader cryptocurrency ETF approvals by focusing on new listing standards for the derivatives market.

According to the latest exchange documents, the SEC now allows ETFs for cryptocurrencies that meet the following conditions: their futures contracts have been listed and traded on mainstream CEX derivation exchanges or the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) for at least six months.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that the new regulation is "significant," explaining that it essentially opens the door for ETFs of about a dozen altcoins, many of which already had a high chance of being approved.

"Any token that has been tracking futures on this mainstream CEX derivation exchange for more than six months will be approved," Barcunas wrote on X (Twitter).

The analyst pointed out that although CME futures are compliant, the types of tokens covered by the derivation market are broader than those of CME. Therefore, using the standards of mainstream CEX is more convenient (as it already includes CME varieties). This move follows the SEC's recent approval of the physical redemption mechanism (In-Kind Redemptions) for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

2. The futures market has set a threshold for ETF access, deepening the integration of traditional finance.

This decision further aligns with traditional financial infrastructure, paving the way for more complex encryption products.

However, the road is not smooth for Meme coins and shallow-rooted digital assets.

Balchunas emphasized that assets like BONK based on Solana or Trump coin, which lack active futures markets, will need to take a more complex path - through the Investment Company Act of 1940 (40 Act), which he referred to as the "$SSK strategy".

"Therefore, we might also see this type of ETF, but the structure will be different. History shows that the 33 Act structure, governed by the Securities Act of 1933, is more favored because it is purely a Spot ETF," said Balchunas. This structure imposes more restrictions, contrasting with the Securities Act of 1933 (33 Act), which governs most Spot crypto ETFs. It has been reported that issuers prefer the 33 Act structure for its simplicity.

3. SEC's "pseudo-outsourcing" decision-making power, the key to mainstream CEX status

ETF analyst James Seyffart believes that the SEC's move is equivalent to "outsourcing decision-making authority."

He pointed out that the proposed listing standards do not mention market cap, liquidity thresholds, or token float requirements. This means that everything is currently based on the futures market.

"The SEC has 'falsely outsourced' the decision-making power on which digital assets can be included in ETF packaging. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is the primary decision-maker on what assets can have futures contracts, and having futures contracts is the main requirement of this rule proposal," he wrote.

Before becoming a member of the Intermarket Surveillance Group (ISG) at a spot encryption exchange, the CEX derivation exchange was still the only "pure encryption" member, highlighting its key role.

4. Outlook: As early as this autumn, the compliance threshold for Meme coins is high.

Although the document sets a framework, the timeline remains uncertain. Balchunas estimates that, depending on regulatory feedback and the implementation of final rules, approval may come as early as September or October.

This rule change is seen as a significant milestone for the integration of encryption assets into the mainstream financial market. While it will not immediately trigger a flood of approvals, it provides a clearer roadmap for more encryption assets, beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, to gain ETF exposure in the coming months. However, for Meme coins that rely on community hype rather than the futures market, their compliance path (40 Act) is more complex, facing significantly higher compliance thresholds for encryption ETFs.

Conclusion:

The SEC's new regulations anchor the derivatives market, paving a predictable path for altcoin ETFs, while major CEXs in the U.S. consolidate their position as industry hubs. The continuation of the physical redemption mechanism and the establishment of futures-linked standards have accelerated the financialization process of encryption assets. However, Meme coins lacking support from traditional financial instruments may be barred from the ETF door, highlighting the stringent requirements for market maturity imposed by regulation. The gradual formation of the U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory framework is profoundly reshaping the global digital asset competitive landscape.