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Final Stretch: Ripple jumps to third in Market Cap, does XRP's astonishing Rebound foreshadow a new market landscape in encryption?
Last week was the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, and the market trading volume was light, maintaining a consolidating pattern overall. The U.S. stock market is poised to make history once again, with 2024 set to be one of the best-performing years in history, and 5 out of the past 6 years seeing returns reach double digits.
2024 is expected to be one of the best-performing years in history.
The market breadth still has support, the difference in the number of 52-week stock highs and lows still looks healthy, the upward trend remains intact, the Volatility Index (VIX) is trending downward. Meanwhile, after Trump announced Scott Bessent's appointment as Treasury Secretary, the US bond market calmed down, with the 10-year yield falling nearly 35 basis points from its October high.
SPX's technical indicator remains strong
Source: Cam Hui Source: Cam Hui
In addition to the so-called 'support for Cryptocurrency' position, Bessent is also a supporter of fiscal hawks and an independent Fed. His 3-3-3 plan (reducing the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP, increasing actual GDP rise to 3%, and increasing energy production by 3 million barrels per day) has brought relief to the U.S. fixed income market, and since his nomination, the yield curve premium has remained stable at current levels. Although there are still doubts about his core views, journalists have found in their research of his early speeches that due to central bank accumulation, he is 'long-term bullish' on gold. Will this have a spillover effect on Bitcoin, especially in the recent discussion on strategic reserve portfolios? At least it can be said that the next four years will undoubtedly be very interesting.
Since Bessent took office, the fixed income market has become more stable.
Source: Fred, Cam Hui Bessent, the minister is believed to be 'long on' gold... What about BTC?
Traders are gearing up for a busy week as they await the release of the final non-farm payrolls of the year. Despite concerns about the rebound in inflation, the market still expects a 65% chance of a rate cut. However, considering the robust economic conditions, the forward rate cut expectations for 2025-2027 have dropped significantly. In terms of employment data, the market expects a rebound to around +160,000 for overall employment data, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain around 4.3%. Given the recent softness in PMI surveys and high-frequency employment data, there is a chance that the final data may be below expectations. However, unless there is an extremely unexpected outcome, the risk sentiment is likely to remain positive.
The market has significantly reduced expectations of future interest rate cuts beyond 2025.
Source: Citi
Wall Street expects a Rebound in non-farm payrolls data this month.
Source: Citi Will inflation return in 2025?
The optimistic sentiment in the cryptocurrency market remains widespread, but the focus this week is on Ripple, which surged a stunning 73% amid expectations that the government will withdraw its long-running lawsuit. This significant surge has helped XRP surpass USDT to become the third-ranked cryptocurrency by Market Cap. In anticipation of this development, WhaleAddress has been actively buying (and is now selling) XRP over the past month.
Ripple surpasses USDT to become the third-largest Token by market capitalization
Source: Messari
Large-scale holders have been very active in the trading of XRP recently.
Source: Messari
The current rally is mainly focused on Mainstream Token (excluding ETH), with BTC leading the way, while altcoins are still struggling to return to the highs of January. Although the recent success of L2 and protocol blockchain transformations (such as Hyperliquid) continues to dominate the attention of the cryptocurrency market, we have seen some improvement in Ethereum through the inflow of funds into ETH ETF. Last Friday, the inflow exceeded $330 million. Will we see more secondary Mainstream Tokens driven to Rebound before the end of the year?
BTC still dominates the bullish trend since the beginning of the year
The success of L2 transaction fees and the transformation of Decentralized Finance protocols into blockchain projects (such as Hyperliquid) has dominated the recent narrative of Crypto Assets.
Source: Coingecko, Bloomberg
ETH ETF capital inflows finally began to rise... Is this a sign?
Source: Farside Investors
Regardless, the basic indicators of Cryptocurrency remain optimistic, and the Market Cap of Stable Coins has finally exceeded the high point of the Terra-Luna period. Stable Coins are usually the first stop for most fiat coin users to enter the Cryptocurrency market, and a higher Market Cap (fixed price, thus entirely driven by quantity) indicates higher mainstream participation.
With more new funds from investors, will the new year see a faster rise? Hope so!
Stable CoinMarket Cap increases usually mean higher mainstream participation, as the author explains
Co-founder Augustine FAN, SOFA.org
Augustine Fan is a professional with over twenty years of outstanding experience, active in Wall Street, family offices, private sale equity, and now dedicated to the field of Cryptocurrency. Currently, he holds a leadership position at SOFA.org and is also a partner and Chief Financial Officer (CFO) at SignalPlus, a leading software technology provider in the Cryptocurrency Options field of digital assets.
Before entering the Cryptocurrency field, Augustine worked at Goldman Sachs for ten years as a U.S. Interest Rate Trader and Macro Specialist, serving in offices in New York, London, Tokyo, and Hong Kong. After leaving Wall Street, he joined a Hong Kong-based family office with a focus on shipping, assisting in managing one of Asia's most active subordinated macro trading portfolios. He then became the Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of another Hong Kong-based family office, focusing on private sale equities, credit, real estate, public companies, and frontier market investments.
Augustine is a CFA charterholder, Leslie Wong Fellow, and graduated with first-class honors from the University of British Columbia (UBC) in Canada, with a Bachelor of Commerce degree.
This article Final Stretch: Ripple rises to third in Market Cap, does XRP's astonishing Rebound herald a new market capitalization in the encryption market? First appeared in Chain News ABMedia.