Spot Bitcoin ETF inflow decreases but BTC whales signal a bull run acceleration

Author: Biraajmaan Tamuly, CoinTelegraph; Translated by: Deng Tong, Jinse Finance

Abstract

• The inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs has plummeted over 90% in four weeks, dropping to $228 million from $3 billion.
• While strong ETF inflows typically drive Bitcoin prices up, recent data suggests that price fluctuations may occur independently.
• Despite short-term selling pressure, the long-term buying by BTC whales indicates that the upward trend of BTC may continue.

The inflow of Bitcoin spot BTC Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF) has plummeted by more than 90%, dropping from $3 billion in the last week of April to $228 million this week.

Historically, a slowdown in ETF inflows can affect BTC prices, especially when the average daily inflow exceeds 1.5 billion USD for several consecutive weeks. To understand the potential impact of ETFs on Bitcoin, let's analyze four key periods of high activity in spot ETFs and their correlation with BTC price trends.

The net inflow of spot Bitcoin ETF. Source: SoSoValue

In the first quarter of 2024, from February 2 to March 15, spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $11.39 billion over seven weeks, driving prices up by 57%. However, the BTC price peaked in the fifth week, as the $4.8 billion inflow in the last two weeks did not elevate its value.

Bitcoin weekly price chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Similarly, in the third quarter of 2024, during the nine weeks from October 18 to December 13, Bitcoin inflows reached $16.8 billion, driving its price up by 66%. However, when inflows slowed in the 10th week, the price of Bitcoin dropped by 9%, reinforcing the link between ETF fund inflows and price corrections.

In the first quarter of 2025, inflows reached $3.8 billion within two weeks (from January 17 to 24), and set a historical high of $110,000 on January 20, but the overall price fell by 4.8%.

Recently, during the second quarter of 2025 (from April 25 to May 9), inflows reached 5.8 billion USD, and prices rose by 22%. Despite the net inflows being negative in the previous two weeks, the price of Bitcoin had already increased by 8%.

The correlation between Bitcoin prices and spot ETFs. Data source: SoSoValue, Cointelegraph

This data challenges the view that the inflow into spot ETFs continues to drive prices up. While the strong inflows in the third quarter of 2024 and the second quarter of 2025 indicate that significant capital inflow drives prices up, the data for the first quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 shows that, despite substantial inflows, prices may still stagnate or decline. The increase in the second quarter of 2025 is partially independent of spot ETF activity, suggesting other driving factors such as U.S. tariff reductions, retail investor interest, or the accumulation of Bitcoin by whales.

Given that the current inflow is $228 million, historical trends lean bearish, suggesting a potential pullback. However, recent whale activity presents a contrary view, painting a more optimistic picture.

Bitcoin Faces Selling Pressure, But Whales May Continue This Trend

Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, said that Bitcoin is under selling pressure in the short term as the buy/sell pressure spread turns negative. The chart shows that whales are starting to dump Bitcoin between $105,000 and $100,000, a level that Wedson labels as risky. This bearish move, coupled with a negative cumulative volume spread, suggests selling pressure in the near term. **

Bitcoin buy/sell pressure increment. Source: X.com

However, the long-term buying pressure remains strong, indicating that this decline is a pullback rather than a reversal. Data from CryptoQuant shows that the profit-taking extent of whales during the current period is relatively lower than previous price peaks. Anonymous analyst Blitzz Trading pointed out: "Compared to previous rebounds, we can see that the profit-taking extent of whales has significantly decreased during the recent surge. This may indicate that the upward trend could continue. This chart is worth close attention."

Bitcoin whales. Source: CryptoQuant