Bitcoin is at a critical juncture, analysts say—Here is the reason

In a recent post on X, analyst Checkmate discussed what Bitcoin looks like based on its Realized Price UTXO distribution (URPD). URPD is an on-chain indicator that tells us what portion of the BTC supply was last purchased at different price levels that the cryptocurrency has reached in its history. Below is the chart of the data that the analyst shared in the post.

As can be seen in the chart, a significant portion of the Bitcoin supply has been bought around the price range that BTC has recently traded. In particular, it seems that there are two large supply clusters at these levels. When Checkmate shared the chart yesterday, the price of the cryptocurrency was trading right between two supply walls. This means that investors who bought at the lower wall are in profit, while those who bought at the higher wall are not in profit. The analyst calls the asset's position "right in the middle of the decision point". This is due to the fact that any significant move up or down from that point will affect the profit and loss status of a large number of addresses. In chain analysis, the large supply walls below the spot BTC price are considered potential support levels, as investors who bought there may defend their breakeven point during the retest. Similarly, the levels above can act as resistance levels, as holders may take this opportunity to sell their cryptocurrency and recoup their entire investment. Since the post, Bitcoin has experienced a slight pullback, so this asset is currently heading towards the green supply zone. It is likely that this zone will help BTC avoid depreciation, considering the large amount of supply being bought within it. Of course, its next direction could have a significant impact on market sentiment. As Checkmate said, "just one large red or green candle from here is enough to convince people of a lower high or a continued bullish trend." Bitcoin is currently also near the macro support level on-chain: The realized price of short-term holders. As community analyst CryptoQuant Maartunn explained in post X, this level is at $93,364.

The actual price of short-term holders refers to the average cost basis of those who have held Bitcoin after purchasing their coins in the past 155 days. This level has historically acted as a boundary between bullish and bearish trends for BTC.