Messari report interpretation: Memecoin trading accounts for more than half, can Solana's rise myth continue?

Author: MONK

Compilation: Deep Tide TechFlow

(This article summarizes the key takeaways from Messari's latest report.) ）

Recently, the discussion about whether Memecoin is "dying" and whether this will lead to Solana's plight is escalating. Next, I will use data to answer for you.

Since the $LIBRA incident, the trading volume of Memecoin on Solana has dropped to the lowest level this year.

However, it is important to note that the current trading volume is still higher than the level at the beginning of 2024, which does not mean that Memecoin has exited the stage of history.

What I really want to emphasize is the extent to which the Solana economy relies on Memecoin support.

Solana's Economy Depends on Memecoin: Risks and the Current Situation

The economic nature of Solana is fundamentally driven by transaction volume.

If we observe the leading applications ranked by revenue on Solana, we will find that these applications are almost all protocols that facilitate transaction activities in some way.

This can be verified by the strong correlation between daily DEX trading volume and application revenue.

This mode is not uncommon in today's high-throughput blockchain. For example, Base's economy also operates largely based on transaction volume.

In contrast, the revenue of the Ethereum mainnet comes more from applications driven by Total Value Locked (TVL), such as lending and mining rewards, mainly because trading activities on the mainnet have significantly reduced.

However, it is worth noting what the core factors driving these trading volumes are.

On Solana, a large amount of trading activity comes from Memecoin.

Worryingly, Memecoin's share of transaction volume has become unusually high. In February 2025, for example, Memecoin accounted for 70% of the total trading volume of the Solana DEX.

In contrast, Base, a competitor of Solana, is gradually moving away from its reliance on Memecoin trading volume and shifting towards more project tokens and trading pairs denominated in mainstream assets:

Why is this a problem?

First, Solana's memecoins are extremely volatile, and the sustainability of these memecoins is still in question.

What's more, researchers, investors, and the Solana Foundation have been emphasizing the growth of app revenue and "on-chain GDP." Solana's app revenue is really growing dramatically and remains one of the best indicators of user engagement.

However, when we delve into the main sources of these revenues, we find that the most profitable businesses on Solana are actually profiting from Memecoin dependencies.

For example, the two highest-earning areas on Solana are Telegram trading bots and Launchpads (such as pump.fun).

Together, these two segments account for more than 60% of Solana's app revenue, with annualized revenue of more than $3.3 billion.

The core of these businesses is Memecoin.

The interdependence in the Solana application economy further exacerbates the risk of Memecoin trading volume.

For example, Pump relies on Raydium, which in turn relies on Jupiter, followed by Photon and Jito.

This means that a Memecoin transaction can generate revenue for five different applications at the same time.

So these look like separate business apps, and their revenues are actually largely interdependent.

However, this cross-domain revenue is built on the basis that 50%-70% of the current trading volume comes from Memecoin activities.

From the perspective of blockchain, Memecoin itself is not a problem. For Solana, this phenomenon is a natural result of its low-cost block space and early lead in on-chain user experience (UX).

Blockchain should essentially remain neutral to the types of activities.

Building an ecosystem around Memecoin can be profitable, so many protocols have seized this opportunity.

In the future, other asset categories, such as decentralized Internet of Things networks (DePIN), real-world assets (RWAs), stablecoins, and mainstream assets, may gradually replace the trading volume of Memecoin.

But at present, it is not an exaggeration to say that Solana is a 'Memecoin economy'.

This also means that if Memecoin trading volume experiences a significant contraction, it could trigger a chain reaction of declining revenue.

Why is this important?

The narrative of Solana's development has always revolved around the growth of fundamental indicators, which also provide support for the performance of $SOL assets.

However, these indicators are highly dependent on the Memecoin field, which has a strong reflexivity (i.e., changes in trading volume will amplify market fluctuations).

If we use these metrics to assess Solana's progress, then the collapse of Memecoin's trading volume could turn a "growth story" into a "rebuild story."

This will lead to a sharp change in market sentiment, and it may take a long time to recover these economic activities.

Of course, it's also possible that Murad's point of view is correct. If so, let's ignore the above concerns.

Long term, I still bullish on the Solana ecosystem. However, in the short to medium term, if the demand for Memecoin is not sustainable, Solana's economy may face certain challenges.