The European Central Bank will face its largest personnel changes since 2019, and the balance between hawks and doves may change.

On February 7th, Jinshi data reported that the European Central Bank (ECB) is entering a new phase of uncertainty, as the terms of 7 of its 26 Interest Rate setters will end in December, marking the largest personnel change since 2019. This includes Klaas Knot, the longest-serving member of the Governing Council and president of the Dutch Central Bank, as well as several former finance ministers who have experienced the European debt crisis. Their expertise is particularly important in the current environment of renewed budgetary tension and the backdrop of a US-led trade war. While a radical policy shift at the ECB is unlikely, the personnel changes suggest that policy observation will become more challenging, and the balance between hawks and doves may shift. Carsten Brzeski, Head of Macro Research at ING, stated that a European Central Bank with as many as seven new members is more prone to mistakes.