Analyst: The record-breaking inverted yield curve of the government bond yield curve is a warning signal

On July 16, Jin10 data analyst Simon White said that this week, the so-called 'Trump trade' has refocused the market's attention on the yield curve. However, this usually means a relaxation of financial conditions, which is completely different from the information conveyed by the yield curve that is less followed. This curve uses inflation expectations to drop yields and obtain a forward-looking actual yield curve. Its recent inversion amplitude exceeds the past. If the inferred actual yield can be realized, it means that consumers' financial conditions have actually tightened significantly, which is unfavorable for the rise, stock valuations, and returns.