Bitcoin Price Prediction: Sideways Consolidation Paves the Way for a Push to $136,000, Year-End Target Set at $164,000

The current sideways consolidation of Bitcoin has been accurately identified as the fourth wave adjustment (orange wave-4), serving merely as a relay station before the impact on $136,000. Technical Analysis indicates that the gray first wave (W-i) initiated from the low on June 22 and the gray third wave (W-iii) reaching the high of $123,200 on July 14 have both perfectly fulfilled their predictions. After the current consolidation ends, the upcoming orange fifth wave (W-5) will push the price towards the target of $136,000, which also corresponds to the bullish flag breakout target and the 100% Fibonacci extension level of the green third wave (W-3). A larger cycle maintains the target range of $164,000 to $216,000 by the end of the year.

Wave Structure Validation: Accurate Prediction Realized About a month ago (when Bitcoin was at $107,000), we clearly pointed out using the Elliott Wave Theory (EW):

• Wave Division: The rise starting from the low point on June 22 is the gray first wave (W-i), and the brief pullback is the gray second wave (W-ii), which is the "last chance to board the bull market."
• Target Path: After the gray W-i/ii, the gray W-iii/iv/v and green W-4/5 will unfold, with the final target pointing to $174,000 (standard Fibonacci path).

The actual market movement perfectly aligns with the theory:

• Gray W-i: Topped at $108,196 on the prediction date (June 25)
• Gray W-ii: Retracement to $150,143 in 6 days (the original $150,143 may be a typo, logically it should be a lower point)
• Gray W-iii: Continuing the rise, reaching a high of $123,220 on July 14.

Current Stage: The Four-Wave Adjustment is Approaching its End

• Pattern Positioning: Currently in a sideways consolidation, it's the green third wave (W-3) within the gray third wave (W-iii), and the orange fourth wave (W-4).
• Bullish Flag Pattern: The previously identified bullish flag pattern (dashed black frame) remains valid, with the breakout target still anchored at $136,000.
• Technical Basis: This target is also the 100% Fibonacci extension level from the approximately 98,000 low on June 22 of the green first wave (W-1), in line with the standard momentum pattern target of "the third wave within the third wave" (gray W-iii within green W-3).

Future Path: Elliott Wave Theory Drives New Offensive

1. Short-term Target (Orange Wave-5): After the current orange fourth wave (W-4) adjustment ends, the subsequent orange fifth wave (W-5) will drive the price to challenge the target of $136,000.
2. Relay Demand (Gray Wave - iii): From the low of the gray second wave (W - ii ), only four waves of upward movement have been completed to date, and a fifth wave is still needed to complete the full five-wave structure of the gray third wave (W - iii ).
3. Cycle Target (End of Year): Maintain the overall target range of $164,000 - $216,000. Among them, the 176.4% Fibonacci extension target of $164,913 (approximately $164,000) constitutes the core support basis.

Key Price Levels and Trading Strategies

• Key Support: The lower edge of the current fourth wave consolidation range (maintaining bullish if held steady)
• Breakthrough Confirmation: Effective breakout of the bullish flag upper trendline (initiates Elliott Wave Theory signal)
• Short-term target: $136,000 (Orange Wave -5/Gray Wave -iii target)
• Medium-term target: $164,000 (176.4% Fibonacci level, year-end benchmark target)
• Ultimate Goal: $216,000 (theoretical maximum)
• Key Points: A complete Elliott Wave Theory advance requires breaking through the previous high of $123,220.

Conclusion: The interpretation of the Elliott Wave Theory regarding the current sideways structure of Bitcoin clearly points to a rising relay, with a target of $136,000 supported by both a pattern breakout and Fibonacci resonance. Investors need to closely monitor two points: 1) the stabilization signal after the end of the fourth wave adjustment; 2) the validity of the breakout above the upper trendline of the bullish flag. If the theory continues to hold, Bitcoin will aim for the target range of $164,000 to $216,000 after completing the $136,000 target, following necessary adjustments. The accuracy of historical predictions adds credibility to this analysis, but caution is required regarding risk management plans in case of wave extension or failure.