The project party of Fat Penguin PENGU transferred 1.56 billion Tokens to CEX, after a big pump of 800%, is a sell alarm being sounded?

The blockchain monitoring platform Arkham disclosed that the project party of Pudgy Penguins deployed a wallet that has transferred 1.586 billion PENGU (approximately 45.56 million USD) to mainstream exchanges from July 11 to date, raising concerns about market dumping. Despite the token rising 8 times this month and its market capitalization exceeding 2 billion USD, along with favourable information from the SEC confirming the ETF application, the technical indicators show an overbought divergence signal. The project party still holds 9.541 billion PENGU (worth 299 million USD), creating a tug-of-war between short-term selling pressure risks and ecological development (mobile game launch/exchange support). Experts warn that failure to hold above 0.03 USD could trigger a 30% pullback.

1.56 billion Tokens movement triggers market panic, project party still holds coins worth 299 million USD

• Large Transfer Path: Transfer 1.586 billion PENGU in batches to CEX through the Squads Vault multi-signature address, accounting for about 14.2% of the circulating supply (valued at 45.56 million US dollars based on the transfer price).
• Project Party Reserve Size: The deployed Wallet still holds 9.541 billion PENGU, valued at approximately 299 million USD, accounting for nearly 38% of the total Token supply.
• Community Polarization: The retail community is emerging with the controversy of "take profit or believe ( tp or believe )", KOL warns that "whale selling may trigger a stampede".

Big pump fundamentals: ETF expectations + ecosystem expansion support a market capitalization of 2 billion dollars

1. Regulatory Milestone: The SEC officially accepted the application for the PENGU spot ETF submitted by Canary, becoming the third meme coin to be considered by regulators after DOGE and SHIB.
2. Ecological Progress: ▶ The mobile game "Pudgy World" is globally launched, driving a surge in user base. ▶ The daily trading volume exceeded $1.75 billion, surpassing PEPE to enter the top meme coin camp.
3. Price Trajectory:
   • Rebounded 800% from the April low, reaching a high of $0.034
   • Currently holding steady at the key level of $0.03, with a market capitalization of $2.03 billion

Technical Face-off: Overbought Signals vs. Liquidity Siphoning

• Bearish Factors: ▶ The RSI weekly has broken above 85 into the extreme Overbought zone. ▶ The 4-hour chart MACD has formed a top divergence, and selling pressure continues to accumulate. ▶ The project party's transfer of assets intensifies the expected selling pressure on centralized exchanges.
• Bullish Support： ▶ The daily trading volume remains above 900 million US dollars, with excellent liquidity depth. ▶ CEX adds new contract trading pairs, with a 270% month-on-month increase in derivatives open interest. ▶ Analyst Honey pointed out: After the weekly level breakout, the mid-line target of $0.04 is still valid.

Expert Opinion: Short-term fluctuations are inevitable, ecological value determines long-term survival

• Trader Muro: "The breadth of exchange cooperation and development progress of PENGU has surpassed most established Meme coins, and a single transfer cannot shake the fundamentals."

• Arkham On-Chain Alert: If the project party continues to transfer more than 5% of their holdings, it may trigger panic selling in the market.

• Key Threshold： ▶ Support level: $0.028 (30-day moving average support) ▶ Breakout risk: Falling below $0.025 may trigger a chain liquidation, targeting down to $0.021.

  

Conclusion: $0.03 becomes the lifeline for bulls and bears, ETF progress is the key to breaking the deadlock The project party's transfer of $45.56 million worth of tokens and a massive reserve of 9.541 billion coins ($299 million) constitutes the biggest short-term risk exposure for PENGU. If there are no large sell orders on the exchange this week, it is expected to rely on the growth of mobile game users and ETF expectations to push towards $0.035; on the contrary, if on-chain monitoring detects selling from addresses associated with the project party, it may trigger a 30% level pullback. Investors need to closely watch three key signals:

1. Centralized exchange large deposit records
2. SEC Announcement on the Review Progress of PENGU ETF
3. Change in long and short positions in the range of 0.028-0.030 US dollars The ecological development has proven that PENGU transcends pure meme attributes, but the transparency of the project party's actions will determine whether it can truly challenge SHIB's market capitalization status.