Bitcoin short-term holder cost benchmark shifts upward: Glassnode points to the next key level of $136,000

Bitcoin short-term holder cost benchmark approaches 136,000 USD

Glassnode, an on-chain data analysis agency, recently released an analysis on the X platform, pointing out that Bitcoin's short-term holder cost basis (STH Cost Basis) shows that the market is moving towards a key inflection point. This indicator represents the average holding cost of investors who bought BTC in the last 155 days.

Data shows that after Bitcoin's price broke above the cost benchmark at the beginning of the year, it has continued to maintain above that level, indicating that most short-term holders are still in a state of floating profit. Recently, after reaching a historical high of over $123,000, BTC broke above the short-term cost benchmark +1 standard deviation level, which has typically been associated with market overheating areas in previous bull markets.

$136,000 becomes the next critical technology threshold

Glassnode points out that if the upward trend continues, the next important resistance level will be at $136,000, which is +2 standard deviations above the short-term cost Benchmark. This price level has corresponded with strong profit-taking and local tops multiple times in past cycles.

On-chain signals indicate an increase in short-term risk

While the STH cost model has not yet signaled that the market is overheating, other on-chain metrics suggest that short-term market risk has risen significantly. The STH floating-profit supply ratio has recently crossed the historical high-risk threshold of 88%, indicating that most short-term holders have achieved significant paper gains.

In addition, the proportion of profitable trades for STH has also soared, exceeding the historical risk level of 62%. "These indicators can have several highs in a bull market, but repeatedly reaching historical limits is often a sign that a local top is about to form," Glassnode warns. ”

The profit and loss ratio has reached extreme values

The report also pointed out that the 7-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the profit and loss ratio achieved by STH has risen to 39.8, which is at a historically extreme level. Although such peaks may repeatedly occur during bull market cycles, historical data shows that cycle tops often form shortly after these signals appear.

Glassnode summarizes: "Although historical tops always appear with a delay, the current high profit-taking and unrealized profit ratio have significantly raised market risks, and investors should be wary of severe fluctuations that may be triggered by external shocks. The current price correction aligns with this pattern."

Epilogue:

Although there is still room for further upside in the market, there is a consensus that Bitcoin is currently in high-risk territory. For crypto investors, it is necessary to carefully assess the risk-return ratio in the short term, and pay close attention to on-chain data changes to deal with possible pullbacks or volatile markets. In the long run, Bitcoin as an asset is evolving in a more mature and institutional direction, and patient holding may become a key strategy to cross bulls and bears.