After reaching a new high, the Bitcoin bull run remains strong, with the absence of retail investors indicating greater rise potential.

On July 11, 2025, Bitcoin broke a new high during the Asian trading session, reaching $118,399, marking another important milestone in the current bull run.

Unlike the frenzied peaks of the past few times, this breakthrough appears to be more rational and based on a more solid foundation. In an analysis on July 11, CryptoQuant contributor Avocado Onchain pointed out that several key indicators suggest that the market is not overheated.

MVRV ratio shows the market is not overheated

The MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value, the ratio of Bitcoin's market value to its realized value) is currently 2.2. This figure is well below the overheated level of 2.7 reached in March and December 2024, indicating that the market's speculative sentiment is relatively mild.

The MVRV ratio, as a key indicator of whether the market is overheated, typically remains at a high level during sharp price increases. When it approaches 2.7, it usually indicates a risk of excessive speculation and bubbles in the market. However, the current level of 2.2 suggests that the Bitcoin market is still in a healthy growth phase and has not yet entered a frenzy of speculation.

Investor behavior has changed

Compared to previous bull run peak periods, the behavior of current investors has also changed significantly. In the past, during the peak of a bull run, short-term holders of Bitcoin, those who held for less than a month, accounted for about 30% of the market. However, today, this proportion has dropped to 15%. The decrease in short-term investors usually indicates reduced market volatility and relatively smaller risks of sudden sell-offs.

In addition, based on the changes in the "Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)" indicator, the recent profit-taking behavior of buyers is not significant, indicating that there is no apparent selling pressure in the market.

Miner sentiment is moderate, with accumulation of funds rather than selling

Miners are often early sellers at the market top, and currently, miner sentiment is relatively calm. The Miner Position Index has been continuously declining, and some mining companies seem to be accumulating Bitcoin rather than selling.

This phenomenon indicates that miners are not feeling excessive selling pressure at this stage, which further confirms the stability of the market.

Retail investors are absent, the market has not welcomed a frenzy

According to another analysis by CryptoQuant, the activity of retail investors has also declined. Their "retail spot activity trading frequency surge" indicator remains in the gray area, indicating that retail investors have not yet re-entered the market.

Historically, the influx of retail investors often coincides with the peak of a bull run, while the current absence of retail investors may suggest that the top of Bitcoin is still far from us. Institutional investors and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are still driving the market up, which may indicate that there is still significant upside potential for Bitcoin.

Short-term support levels to watch $106,500 and $101,200

Looking ahead, the short-term support levels will provide clues for the next move of the market. $106,500 and $101,200 are the key price points that analysts are focusing on, representing the average cost basis of holders who purchased Bitcoin in the past one to three months.

If Bitcoin can maintain above these support levels, the upward trend may continue. If it breaks below these support levels, it could trigger short-term selling, but it may also attract new buyers into the market.

Summary: The current bull run is more stable, led by institutions

Overall, the current upward trend in Bitcoin seems to be more sustainable than ever before. If institutional investors' interest remains steady, on-chain signals remain stable, and retail investors are still in a wait-and-see mode, Bitcoin may continue to rise without the severe volatility commonly seen at the end of previous bull runs.