Bitcoin strongly breaks through $118,000! Institutional funds become the key driver.

The price of Bitcoin has strongly突破 the $118,000 mark, setting a new historical record (ATH). Unlike the last breakthrough, this round of上涨行情 has明显的 institutional investors入场迹象. The South Korean media giant K Wave Media has publicly announced that as part of its $1 billion asset allocation plan, it has purchased 88 BTC. The market's core focus is: Can this BTC price突破 avoid repeating the big dump to $98,000 in May? Let's delve into the on-chain data and technical charts.

Strong on-chain signals: Exchange inflow sharply declines, whales and retail investors remain still

On-chain data analysis platform CryptoQuant shows that the current Daily Exchange Inflow of Bitcoin has fallen to only about 32,000 BTC (as of writing), marking a record low since 2015. Looking back to December 2024, when Bitcoin first broke through the $100,000 mark, this figure was as high as about 97,000 BTC.

This big fall is of great significance. Even when the price reached a new ATH, holders (including whales and retail investors) did not actively transfer tokens to exchanges — this clearly indicates that the current market sell pressure is extremely low, and holders have a solid confidence in the asset.

The inflow volume to exchanges usually reflects the willingness of holders to sell. The sharp decline in this data is a strong bullish confidence signal: both large holders and small retail investors currently have no urgent intention to exit (at least in the short term). From a structural perspective, this significantly reduces the likelihood of a repeat of the May-style crash.

In addition, Zilliqa's interim CEO Alexander Zahnd affirmed the current momentum in an interview with BeInCrypto: "Near-Term Momentum is real - institutional demand is increasing, Bitcoin spot ETF inflows are strong, and companies continue to incorporate Bitcoin into their balance sheets."

Key Support Fortress: IOMAP Reveals a Solid "Demand Wall"

Next, focus on the downside support. According to IntoTheBlock's In/Out of Money Around Price (IOMAP) indicator, there are over 645,000 Bitcoin addresses that have purchased BTC in the price range of $108,795 to $110,624. These addresses collectively hold approximately 477,000 BTC near this critical area, forming a strong "demand wall".

The big dump in May was precisely because the support level was quickly breached. If the Bitcoin price can stabilize above this address cluster support level, it means that these short-term buyers are still in a profitable position ("In the Money"), which will greatly bolster market confidence in holding coins.

The IOMAP indicator is used to identify the distribution of buyers' holding costs and their profit and loss status (profit is "In the Money", loss is "Out of the Money") across different historical price ranges. When a large number of addresses cluster around a specific price range, that area often becomes an important support level or resistance level.

Technical Concerns: RSI Divergence Warns of Correction, but Panic Levels Not Reached

The potential risk lies in the technical indicators. Although the Bitcoin price continues to create higher highs, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has formed lower highs—this is a textbook bearish divergence signal, which usually indicates that the price may pull back.

However, the key difference is that the current RSI value is still below the overbought area (below 72), while in May, the RSI soared to nearly 80's overbought level. Therefore, although there are divergence signals, it has not yet reached the threshold that triggers panic selling. Based on this, the likelihood of a massive correction similar to May is low, but market participants should be prepared for an appropriate retracement.

RSI is used to measure the momentum of price changes. Divergence between price and RSI indicates that the upward momentum is weakening. However, since the current RSI has not entered the overbought zone, it means that the current uptrend may still have some strength.

Fibonacci Extension: Guiding the Upward Target Path

As the price of Bitcoin enters a price discovery phase with no historical resistance references once again, trend-based Fibonacci extensions have become an effective tool for charting potential resistance areas.

From Swing Low $74,543 to the May high of $111,980, and considering the subsequent retracement to $98,000 low, we derive the following key Fibonacci extension resistance levels:

• 0.382 extension level: $112,439 ( has broken through )
• 0.5 Extension Position: $116,857 ( Current Target )
• 0.618 extension level: $121,274 ( next key target )
• 1.0 Expansion Level: $135,576 ( long-term target )

These levels provide a clear reference framework for assessing Bitcoin's potential pump targets and profit-taking zones.