Investors in the future social rule makers

Another video I heard over the weekend was a summary by a blogger of Peter Thiel's recent interview, and I was very shocked after listening to it.

Regarding Peter Thiel, I mentioned in a previous article that he is a benefactor of the current Vice President of the United States, Vance, who has helped promote and support him to reach his current position of power.

A few years ago, I read his book "Zero to One."

In my impression, he is an invisible tycoon in Silicon Valley, quietly influencing the political and technological sectors of the United States with his immense wealth.

In this video summary of the interview, the author summarizes several rather "striking" points made by Peter Thiel.

In Peter Thiel's view, apart from innovations in the digital world like computers and smartphones in recent decades, human innovation in the field of technology in the real world has almost completely stagnated—humans still cannot cure cancer, and it is becoming increasingly difficult to extend life...

It can be said that we are using 21st-century phones but still riding 19th-century subways.

What are the consequences of this technological stagnation in the real world?

For both individuals and companies, it is an endless cycle of competition and a zero-sum game; when one part gains, another part loses. Everyone will strive desperately to grab that little bit of existing resources.

Therefore, the various online bullying, hostility, and escalating conflicts in the virtual world are not seen by him as a clash of ideas, but rather as a way to direct and vent all the anxieties caused by stagnation and internal competition toward a specific group and a specific individual, gaining temporary peace and relief by sacrificing them.

And there are only two possible outcomes for this situation:

One is the complete collapse of the existing order, leading to chaos and disorder, and everyone is finished together.

And the other, which he sees as more dangerous, is the emergence of a single global state that tells everyone: elsewhere is very chaotic and disordered, but you don’t have to be afraid, come to me, listen to me, and I will provide you with safety and order.

But what you will pay is your freedom.

Faced with this dilemma, Peter Thiel's solution is to stake his own wealth on a gamble to find a third way before these two outcomes arrive.

The core of this third path is to find a constraint.

The political manifestation of this constraint is a comprehensive resistance to globalization, preventing this country from emerging as a threat to the United States. In action, it is about fully finding anti-establishment figures like Vance who share his views, allowing them to come to power to counter this potentially emerging country.

To resist the arrival of the second outcome.

This constraint manifests in technology as full support for AI. He is one of the earliest investors in OpenAI and one of the founders of Palantir. His goal is to use AI to create this order, to prevent the ultimate chaos and disorder from occurring.

Whether Peter Thiel's views are correct is not the point I want to discuss; what I want to share is that his actions and words completely overturned my previous impressions of Silicon Valley venture capital.

I used to think that:

What do venture capitalists in Silicon Valley consider when investing in a company? What is the business model of the company? Will this business model become popular in the future? Who are the potential customers? How much revenue will it generate?

Then estimate how much the company's future market value will be, and see what kind of return might be obtained from investing at the current cost.

But Peter Thiel has clearly transcended this level.

The primary factor he considers when investing in certain companies is no longer whether the investment target aligns with future trends, but rather whether the investment target can establish the social rules of the future.

I also thought of an investment idea that Dan Bin mentioned: looking for companies that could change the world.

Peter Thiel's thinking goes even further than this idea; some of the companies he invests in not only aim to change the world but also want to change the world according to their own ideals.

In terms of ambition, Peter Thiel far surpasses them.

Peter Thiel's investment approach carries higher risks than traditional venture capital, but once such companies succeed, the returns they bring to investors will be unmatched by traditional venture capital, as the companies he invests in will control the way the future world operates according to his vision.

In addition, in my opinion, the "constraint" that Peter Thiel envisions has another more effective tool besides AI, which is cryptographic technology.

Peter Thiel was also not absent from the feast of cryptocurrency technology. Like Wood, he began purchasing Bitcoin as early as 2015. Additionally, his Founders Fund is involved in various enterprises within the crypto ecosystem.

From an investment perspective, if one is willing to take greater risks and invest in a manner similar to Peter Thiel's approach of seeking "constraints", the crypto world goes without saying; another battlefield is inevitably the US stock market---------- this is long-term investing that completely ignores short-term fluctuations over a ten-year time frame. In such investments, companies in the US stock market that are likely to become future rule-makers in society are very likely to be the biggest potential stocks.