Ripple case becomes the focus of the crypto market: XRP hits 3 dollars; BTC aims for 110,000 dollars.

Galen House Congressional Testimony: Aimed at the SEC, Emphasizing Regulatory Harm Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse will attend a hearing of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee on July 9 (Wednesday) (Topic: From Wall Street to Web3: Building the Future of Digital Asset Markets). His pre-disclosed testimony focuses on the SEC vs. Ripple case and highlights the negative impact of the ambiguous U.S. crypto regulatory framework on innovation and the digital asset space.

"Over the past decade, legal and regulatory uncertainty surrounding cryptocurrencies has hindered the United States from making substantial progress. At Ripple, we have experienced firsthand how the lack of clear rules can be weaponized against compliant companies. Ripple has been at the forefront of this 'enforcement-style regulation' movement, becoming the target of enforcement actions in 2020."

"Ripple is the first major U.S. cryptocurrency company to be sued by the SEC. Many of us understand that a loss in this case would be the death knell for the U.S. crypto industry. Fortunately, after four years of hard legal battles, we have won. The court supported us on all key issues—including ruling that the XRP token itself is not a security. Our victory paves the way for other market participants to fight back."

Optimistic Outlook for SEC Appeal, Increasing Demand Expectations for XRP At the time of Garlinghouse's testimony, the SEC still has not stated whether it will abandon its appeal against the ruling on XRP's programmatic sales. Following Ripple's announcement to withdraw its cross-appeal, investors are waiting for the SEC committee to vote on this appeal.

• SEC's abandonment of the appeal may open the green light for the XRP spot ETF market in the United States, becoming a key catalyst for the surge in XRP demand.
• The next opportunity for SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and the commissioners to vote is on July 10 (Thursday) during a closed-door meeting.

Despite the optimistic market sentiment, the uncertainty of the voting results keeps the XRP price still far below the 2025 peak of $3.3999 and the historical peak of $3.5505 (Gate data).

XRP Price Outlook: SEC Vote and ETF Dynamics Become Key

• On July 8th (Tuesday), XRP rose by 1.74%, closing at $2.311, outperforming the overall cryptocurrency market (+0.93%, with a total market cap of $3.33 trillion).
• The short-term XRP price trend is highly dependent on the SEC appeal plan and the likelihood of the US XRP spot ETF approval.

Recent Positive Signals for ETFs:

1. Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) has received SEC approval for the rule change to transform into an ETF. The GDLC portfolio includes BTC, ETH, ADA, SOL, and XRP. However, its launch has been delayed due to the SEC's implementation of a streamlined process for crypto ETF applications.
2. Trump Media Technology Group's Truth Social submitted an application on July 8, seeking SEC approval for its "Truth Social Crypto Blue Chip ETF". The ETF plans to invest in cryptocurrencies including BTC, CRO, ETH, SOL, and XRP.

The final launch of the GDLC ETF and other multi-currency spot ETFs may pave the way for the approval of a pure XRP spot ETF, becoming a potential catalyst for XRP price breakout.

Technical Analysis:

• Upside Potential: Breaking the July 7 high of $2.3539 could target the May high of $2.6553. If it holds above $2.6553, it may challenge $3 and the 2025 high of $3.3999.

• Downside Risk: A breach of the 50-day EMA may trigger selling pressure, testing the key support level of $2.2, and even the 200-day EMA.

  

Bitcoin Aims for $110,000 as Crypto Legislation Approaches "Congress Week"

Intensive Review of Cryptocurrency Legislation, BTC Strategic Reserve Proposal Draws Attention As market optimism over the SEC dropping the XRP appeal boosts XRP, Bitcoin (BTC) also rises as the focus shifts from trade to digital assets. The US Congress is about to welcome "Crypto Week" (the week of July 14), during which the House of Representatives will review three key crypto bills:

1. The CLARITY Act
2. "Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act"
3. The GENIUS Act

Today's hearing of the Senate Banking Committee is equally important. The progress of the relevant bill in the House may accelerate the debate and voting on the Bitcoin Bill. This bill was reintroduced by Senator Cynthia Lummis in 2025, proposing that the U.S. government acquire 1 million BTC within five years and hold it for 20 years.

If legislation permits the U.S. government to treat BTC as a strategic reserve asset, it will greatly alter the supply and demand balance of BTC, potentially driving its price to a historic high.

Market sentiment warms up, ETFs continue to attract capital Despite the trade uncertainties, BTC market sentiment is improving. On-chain analytics platform Santiment pointed out that:

"Bitcoin traders are once again showing a strong bullish sentiment... caution is needed regarding the collective FOMO influx, as it often leads to short-term corrections."

The capital flow of the US BTC spot ETF market continues to boost overall market confidence:

• July 7 (Monday): Despite the impact of Trump's tariff letter, the U.S. BTC spot ETF still recorded a net inflow of $216.5 million.
• July 8 (Tuesday): Expected to achieve a consecutive four days of net capital inflow. Some data disclosed (Farside Investors):
  • Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC): Net inflow of $4.8 million.
  • Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC), and BlackRock (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) data pending release, with known total inflows reaching $8.5 million.

BTC Price Outlook: Trade, Legislation, and ETF Flow Dynamics Dominate BTC rose by 0.60% on July 8, closing at $108,938, partially recovering from the previous day's decline.

According to Gate's market data, BTC is currently priced at $108,415.5, with a slight increase of 0.52% over the last 24 hours.

Short-term price drivers:

• Development of trade situation
• Progress on cryptocurrency legislation
• Federal Reserve policy signals
• Spot ETF capital flow

Potential Scenario:

• Bearish Scenario: Escalating trade tensions, legislative gridlock, hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, and outflows from ETFs. Under multiple pressures, BTC may test the 50-day EMA and even test the $100,000 support.
• Bullish Scenario: Easing trade tensions, bipartisan support for cryptocurrency legislation, dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, and continued inflows into ETFs. In this scenario, BTC is expected to challenge its historical high of $111,917.
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Key Observation: The Key to Whether XRP/BTC Can Reach New Highs

• Ripple Case Update: SEC Appeal Decision (Core Catalyst).
• Legislative Dynamics: Congressional hearings and bill voting (policy barometer).
• U.S. Trade Policy: Response to Tariffs from Other Countries (Market Risk Sentiment).
• Federal Reserve Guidance: Expectations for the interest rate hike path (impacting risk assets).
• ETF Capital Flow: Inflow/Outflow Trend (the key to determining the supply and demand balance of BTC). (Source: FXEmpire)