Bitcoin brewing a huge change: long-term holders lock-up position, fluctuation compression, is a historic big pump imminent?

Key Point: Long-term holders accumulate over 80% of Bitcoin, supply tightens to historical levels

Renowned cryptocurrency analyst CrediBull Crypto (@CredibleCrypto) pointed out in an analysis on the X platform today that currently over 80% of circulating Bitcoin is held by long-term holders ("diamond hands"). This level of supply tightening has only occurred twice in Bitcoin's 15-year price history, and each time it has preceded a subsequent epic price surge.

📈 History Repeating? The Astonishing Surge After the Previous Two Lock-ups CrediBull emphasizes: "There have only been two periods in Bitcoin's history when the holding ratio was higher than it is now: once at $43,000, followed by a price surge of $30,000 to $73,000; the other time was at $58,000, followed by a spike of $50,000 to over $105,000." Based on this historical precedent, he asserts: "When the vast majority of circulating supply is locked by 'diamond hands', any signs of 'new demand' will trigger a sharp increase in price."

🚀 Institutions continue to accumulate, the next round of impulse rise is "imminent" As the "excess" supply continues to shift into the hands of long-term holders, and institutional buyers such as Bitcoin Treasury Companies increasingly dominate the market, CrediBull sees clear signals: "The next pulse surge is imminent! And this time the increase is likely to be larger than the previous two (over $50,000). Who is ready to welcome Bitcoin at over $150,000?"

📊 Technical confirmation: Volatility compressed to a cycle low point, poised for a breakout Another analyst, Axel Adler Jr, provided technical support. He pointed out that the Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin have narrowed to a distance of 7.7% — this is one of the lowest volatility levels during the current bull market cycle.

Adler explains: "A decrease in volatility indicates that the market is accumulating energy; prices are ready to initiate a trend. In an uptrend environment, the probability of a breakout to the upside is significantly higher." In this bull market, similar volatility compression has occurred six times. Four of these immediately triggered strong upswings, while the remaining two continued upward after only a brief pullback. Adler summarizes: "Based on this experience, the current squeeze is likely to signal another upward pulse, although a slight consolidation before the breakout cannot be ruled out."

🔮 CrediBull's Wave Theory and Risk Warning CrediBull's earlier concept based on the Elliott Wave Theory is: the price is blocked at the high point in the range above $110,000, falling back to around $102,000 in the "blue area", and after several weeks of sideways movement, starting the next impulse. But he also admits: "Although this scenario still has a high probability, there is also a non-zero chance - the next upward impulse may have already begun (the most bullish scenario)."

He emphasized that given the current price trends and structure, the risk-reward ratio for shorting Bitcoin is no longer favorable. "In any case, in my view, the downside potential for Bitcoin from the current position is relatively limited. Therefore, the focus should be on seeking potential Bitcoin bullish opportunities, rather than trying to short obvious strengths." He further sharply questioned: "Why is shorting Bitcoin 'illegal' now? Because the next round of upward momentum may have already begun!"

💎 Conclusion: Multiple signals suggest a new chapter for Bitcoin As long-term holders control the majority of the supply, technical volatility compression accumulates energy, and institutions continue to accumulate reducing circulation, the current environment is highly similar to the period before explosive rises in Bitcoin's history. Although the market is not absolute, the strong overlap of on-chain indicators and technical indicators strongly suggests that the next round of explosive growth for Bitcoin may have quietly begun under the calm surface.