Cardano (ADA) Price Prediction: Whale Sells 170 Million Tokens, Open Interest Declines Intensifying Bearish Sentiment

Cardano (ADA) has fallen for the second consecutive day this week, maintaining a bearish tone due to the resurgence of market risk aversion, as U.S. President Trump extended the tariff suspension period to August 1. Large investors (Whales) of ADA have reduced their Holdings by 170 million ADA in the past two weeks, indicating that funds are flowing out. Against the backdrop of Whale dumping supply, derivative product data shows that optimism is declining, as traders anticipate further losses in the market.

Smart money reduced holdings of 170 million ADA tokens in two weeks

The supply distribution data tracks the total amount of ADA Holdings based on the specified balance. Generally, a negative change in the Holdings of investors who hold a large amount of ADA indicates that the price trend will be negatively affected.

Santiment data shows that investors holding more than 100 million ADA have reduced their holdings by nearly 170 million tokens in the past two weeks. The total number of investors holding between 100 million and 1 billion ADA dropped to 1.82 billion ADA on Tuesday, down from 1.87 billion ADA on June 26. Meanwhile, the total value of investors holding more than 1 billion ADA is 3.22 billion, down from 3.34 billion ADA on June 26.

As retail demand becomes the exit liquidity for smart money, the selling trend of large investors has increased the supply pressure on exchanges.

(Source: Santiment)

ADA Derivative Product Signals Optimism Diminishes

CoinGlass data shows that the ADA open interest (OI) has fallen by 3.38% in the past 24 hours, to $791.47 million.

The decline in OI indicates capital outflow from ADA derivatives, showing a decrease in confidence among derivatives traders.

The weighted financing rate for holdings has decreased from an intraday high of 0.0087% to 0.0018%, further confirming the decline in buying activity. Since the active side of the trading pays the financing rate, off-exchange investors may see the drop in rates as a sign of weakening buying pressure.

ADA Technical Analysis

FXStreet analyst Vishal Dixit stated that starting this week, the ADA price has shown a bearish trend and has retreated from the key resistance trend line connecting the high on May 12 and the closing price on June 11.

The reversal of the resistance trend line may lead to a price pullback within the descending channel, which is formed by the support trend line extrapolated from the low on May 19 and the closing price on June 22. Traders shorting ADA can pay attention to the recent support level of $0.5419 (the last test was on July 1) and use it as a primary target.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows the green histogram falling back towards the reference line, indicating that momentum is weakening. If the upward trend of the MACD and the signal line reverses, investors can consider the crossover as a sell signal.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggles to surpass the midpoint, hovering around 44, indicating persistent dumping pressure.

To solidify the upward trend, ADA must decisively close above the trend line of $0.5896 on the daily chart. In this scenario, the target price for ADA could be $0.6186, which was last tested on June 18.

(Source: Trading View)