Global macro signals support Bitcoin price in the second half of 2025

The price of Bitcoin surged to an all-time high of 111,970 dollars on May 23, 2025, when macro forces supported a return of confidence from investors.

As we enter the second half of the year, important global signals – from the weakening of the US dollar to the increase in global liquidity – indicate that conditions remain favorable for BTC to continue its growth.

Economic growth and policy changes are supporting Bitcoin prices

Recent macro data highlights the U.S. economy stronger than expected. The GDPNow model of the Atlanta Federal Reserve (Atlanta Fed) estimates that GDP growth for Q2 2025 will reach 3.8% compared to the previous quarter.

Inflation has also cooled down, with June CPI data aligning with the 2% target of the Federal Reserve (Fed).

In response, the Fed maintained the interest rate at 4.25–4.5% in June, although the market is currently expecting rate cuts before the end of the year.

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) has also taken similar action. The inflation data for the Eurozone released in June showed that it has returned to target levels, leading many forecasts to suggest that the ECB will cut an additional 25 basis points.

This will bring the ECB's deposit interest rate down to 1.75% in December. Loose monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic tends to support risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Weak USD strengthens positive outlook for the crypto market

One of the strongest macro forces driving the price of Bitcoin today is the weakening momentum of the US Dollar Index (DXY).

According to data from TradingView, the DXY just recorded its worst first half performance in over four decades.

!()https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-0ec7df76aff14c7ad60da291b4764294.webp[bitcoin]Source: XAccording to history, the price of Bitcoin often has an inverse correlation with the US dollar. Research from Milk Road shows that Bitcoin tends to increase in price within three months after periods of severe USD weakness.

At the same time, global liquidity is also expanding. The currency indicators monitored by central banks show that the available capital is increasing net, which often correlates positively with the upward trend of the crypto market.

According to data from CF Benchmarks, traders are currently pricing in expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by 0.75 to 1 percentage point before the end of the year – a historically very positive signal for Bitcoin prices.

The demand for organization and legal progress

May 2025 marks a turning point in demand from financial institutions, as analysts believe this stems from greater clarity regarding the legal framework, including bills in the US such as the CLARITY and GENIUS Acts.

In addition, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is currently reviewing more than 80 ETF registration applications related to crypto, paving the way for broader access to digital assets.

At the same time, many companies are beginning to incorporate Bitcoin into their balance sheets as part of their financial strategy.

The decision of the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) in 2024 – allowing companies to recognize the value of Bitcoin at fair market value has encouraged many organizations to allocate strategic capital into BTC.

In summary, these factors are contributing to the stable upward trend of Bitcoin prices.

Seasonal factors and long-term holding trends

Seasonal trends also further support the optimistic sentiment of the market. According to data from Coinglass, July is typically a positive month for Bitcoin during the years of the bull cycle – such as 2013, 2017, and 2021.

In each of those phases, the increase in global liquidity coincides with double-digit monthly returns for BTC.

At the same time, long-term investors are showing patience. More than 45% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin has not been moved in over 3 years, indicating that many early investors are still waiting for higher prices, thereby contributing to the stability of the current market.

Macroeconomic forces underpinning the price increase of Bitcoin

The convergence of favorable macro trends, expanding global liquidity, and increasing interest from financial institutions is painting a positive picture for the price of Bitcoin in the second half of 2025.

Although past performance does not guarantee future results, historical models combined with current fundamental factors indicate that this digital asset may continue to trend upward in the near future.

Minh Anh