Trump Tariff Policy 2.0 - Encryption Hits Historical High | Hotcoin Research Market Insights: July 7 - July 11, 2025

Crypto Assets market performance

Currently, the total market value of Crypto Assets is $3.68 trillion, with BTC accounting for 63.9%, which is $2.35 trillion. The market value of stablecoins is $257 billion, with a recent 7-day increase of 0.83%, in which USDT accounts for 62.25%. Circle (USDC) is applying for a national trust bank license in the United States to strengthen compliance.

The Trump family achieved a new high in USD1 trading volume, with a 24-hour transaction of 1.25 billion USD, second only to USDT and USDC.

This week, the BTC price has shown volatile upward movement, currently priced at $118,003; ETH has also shown volatile upward movement, currently priced at $3,011.

BTC Key Price Milestones (July 7 - July 11)

date

price

Key Drivers

July 7

107945

Trump's tariff policy has triggered market volatility.

July 10

112000

Brazilian funds flowing into safe havens

July 11

118000 (new high)

ETF capital inflow + short covering

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most are up while a small number are down, including: BONK with a 7-day increase of 37.59%, SPX with a 7-day increase of 32.7%, PENGU with a 7-day increase of 32%, MGO with a 7-day increase of 56%, and 1INCH with a 7-day increase of 42%.

This week, the net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. was $2.7143 billion; the net inflow for Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S. was $907.8 million.

Market Forecast:

This week, stablecoins continue to be issued in large quantities, with significant net inflows in Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in the US. Both BTC and ETH are showing an upward trend. The RSI index is at 62.87, indicating strength. The Fear and Greed Index is at 72 (higher than last week), remaining flat for two consecutive days, reflecting market optimism but not reaching extremes.

This week, the United States introduced Tariff 2.0, imposing tariffs of 20-50% on multiple countries, but the impact on the crypto market is minimal. The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September is 72.3%, but it remained unchanged in July.

Pay special attention to the "Crypto Assets Week" in the U.S. from July 14 to 18, where three major bills, including "GENIUS" and "CLARITY," will be reviewed. If passed, BTC may challenge $120,000. If regulatory uncertainty increases, it may pull back to support levels of $108,000 to $110,000.

Understand now

Review of Major Events of the Week

1. Bitcoin reaches a historical high of $118,000, with short sellers closing positions of $318 million;

2. Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazil (effective August 1), triggering a flow of funds into BTC for safe-haven.

3. The "Crypto Assets Week" in the United States is scheduled for July 14-18, during which the three major bills including "GENIUS" and "CLARITY" will be reviewed;

4. BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of 203 million USD in a single day, with BlackRock's holdings surpassing 78 billion USD;

5. ETH ETF inflows hit a quarterly record high, Fundstrat raises $250 million to increase its ETH holdings;

6. GMX suffered a hacker attack resulting in a loss of 42 million USD, and the team is offering a 10% bounty to recover the funds.

7. The trading volume of XBIT decentralized exchange surged by 300%, becoming a new choice for hedging amid tariff crises;

8. The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes show internal divisions, and expectations for interest rate cuts have cooled;

9. 85 core stocks in Hong Kong have their data on the chain, Pyth Network promotes RWA development;

10. The Trump family's encryption project has made over $600 million in profits, raising controversy over policy and business interests.

Macroeconomics

United States

1. Fiscal Policy: The "Big Beautiful Plan" (tax cuts + infrastructure) has passed the House of Representatives, which may push up long-term inflation;

2. Monetary Policy: The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September is 72.3%, but they held steady in July.

Europe and Asia

Region

Policy Trends

Market Impact

Eurozone

The European Central Bank maintains interest rates, suggesting a delay in rate cuts.

Euro under pressure

Japan

Persist in ultra-loose policies

The depreciation of the yen accelerates.

China

The reserve requirement ratio may be lowered by 0.5% in the second half of the year.

Improvement in liquidity expectations

ETF

According to statistics, from July 7 to July 11, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States was: $2.7143 billion; as of July 11, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of: $23.338 billion, currently holding $21.724 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $83.085 billion. The total market value of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States is: $150.643 billion.

Net inflow of Ethereum spot ETF in the United States: $907.8 million.

Envision the future

Event Announcement

1. Polkadot will hold the Web3 Summit 2025 in Berlin from July 16 to 18;

2. Bitcoin Asia 2025 will be held at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre from August 28 to 29;

3. WebX Asia 2025 will be held in Tokyo, Japan from August 25 to 26, 2025;

4. TOKEN2049 Singapore 2025 will be held in Singapore from October 1 to 2, 2025.

Project Progress

1. The trial of Tornado Cash co-founder Roman Storm will take place on July 14, with the prosecution withdrawing some charges, but still proceeding with charges of money laundering, certain unauthorized funds transfers, and violations of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act;

2. The U.S. Congress will begin voting on three important pieces of legislation related to Crypto Assets on July 14, namely the "Genius Act," the "Clarity Act," and the "Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act;"

3. The first phase of the Wormhole staking program rewards must be claimed before July 15th, after which any unclaimed rewards will be returned to the SRP pool for use in future reward periods.

4. Sonic Labs will randomly open the first phase of S token airdrop claims from July 15 to 22;

5. Tuttle submitted an amendment to change the effective date of a batch of 2x leveraged Crypto Assets ETFs to July 16. This does not mean they will definitely launch, but generally speaking, the effective date is the launch date of the ETFs, and given that SSK has been successfully listed, it is likely that other similar products will follow.

Important Events

1. On July 15 at 20:30, the United States will announce the year-on-year CPI for June, not seasonally adjusted, which will affect the Federal Reserve's policy expectations;

2. On July 17 at 2:00, the Federal Reserve will release the Economic Conditions Beige Book.

Token Unlock

1. Starknet (STRK) will unlock 127 million tokens on July 15, valued at approximately 18.54 million USD, accounting for 3.53% of the circulating supply;

2. Sei (SEI) will unlock 55.56 million tokens on July 15, valued at approximately $17.87 million, accounting for 1% of the circulating supply;

3. Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 92.65 million tokens on July 16, worth approximately $38.51 million, accounting for 1.87% of the circulating supply;

4. ZKsync (ZK) will unlock 173 million coins on July 17, worth approximately 10.12 million USD, accounting for 2.42% of the circulating supply;

5. ApeCoin (APE) will unlock 15.58 million tokens on July 17, worth approximately $10.46 million, accounting for 1.95% of the circulating supply;

6. Fasttoken (FTN) will unlock 20 million tokens on July 18, worth approximately 89 million USD, accounting for 4.64% of the circulating supply;

7. OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP) will unlock 906 million tokens on July 18, valued at approximately $913 million, accounting for 9% of the circulation.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core research and investment hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, focuses on providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global Crypto Assets investors. We have built a "trend assessment + value extraction + real-time tracking" service system, offering deep analysis of the cryptocurrency industry's trends, multi-dimensional evaluation of potential projects, and 24/7 market volatility monitoring. Combined with our weekly dual-updates of the "Hotcoin Select" strategy live broadcast and the "Blockchain Today Headlines" daily news dispatch, we provide precise market interpretations and practical strategies for investors at different levels. Relying on advanced data analysis models and industry resource networks, we continuously empower novice investors to establish cognitive frameworks and assist professional institutions in capturing alpha returns, jointly seizing the value growth opportunities of the Web3 era.

Risk Warning

The volatility of the Crypto Assets market is significant, and investing itself carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors only invest after fully understanding these risks and under a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.

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